Thursday, December 6, 2018
Your piece "Kiss the Beach Goodbye" leaves the impression that a 6.6-foot sea-level rise by 2100 in Santa Barbara reflects the best conclusions of current climate science. But the most authoritative recent study on sea level rise in California projects that there is only a one percent chance of a 6-foot sea-level rise in 2100 under the highest greenhouse gas emission scenario. The median sea level rise projected in 2100 under the same scenario is 2.5 feet. All sea-level projections are subject to considerable uncertainty, but focusing solely on the worst case scenario is unlikely to lead to the best public policy.